Come Undone

Come Undone I lay strewn across the battlefield of corporate mismanagement.

holger

Official Delegate Count from RNC Tampa 2012

Final roll call tally:

Romney - 2061
Paul - 190
Santorum - 9
Bachmann - 1
Huntsman - 1
Roemer - 1 
Abstain/uncommitted - 20

(CNN.com reporting)

There were more Paul supporters than just 190, but many were bound under varying state GOP regulations to vote for Romney.  This number will be cemented in history forever to mark the start of the emergence of liberty-oriented candidates in the GOP.

Super Tuesday Breakdown (Part 2)

Part 1

The last five states on Super Tuesday are Massachusetts, Tennessee, Ohio, Vermont and Virginia.  These are huge states for the GOP nomination and most are tight races.  This doesn’t include the unpledged delegates.

Massachusetts: Mitt Romney

Mass is where Romney was Governor.  This is “home territory” for him, even though he called Michigan his home state.  I’m not sure which is his home state, but its been a criticism on how relatable he is to the average American.  Once again, this is another proportional allocation of delegates, and I expect Romney to do very well.  Romney 35, Santorum 3

Vermont: Mitt Romney

Vermont is proportional as well, but not 15% as usual but instead, you must receive 20% or more.  This is conducive to Romney and he will capitalize on it.  Romney 10, Santorum 4.

Tennessee: Rick Santorum

Santorum is polling ahead in Tennessee, and Gingrich is a little higher than usual.  Based on proportional allocations state-wide and by county, Santorum should be able grab some key delegates here.  I question whether or not Gingrich’s Southern appeal can translate from Georgia to Tenn, but he may get some delegates in a strong 3rd place.  Santorum 31, Romney 22, Gingrich 2.

Virginia: Mitt Romney

Mitt should take this state easily.  Gingrich and Santorum did not make the ballot, so its a literal two man race between Mitt and Ron.  Ron Paul has not mounted a huge campaign here and he’s not favored in Washington.  Due to this stark difference, I would expect a low turnout, and a big Romney win.  Romney 45, Paul 4.

Ohio: Mitt Romney

Ohio is the most important race of the day.  The state is THE battleground state in the general election every four years, and Romney needs to win this state to prove that he resonates with voters there against Obama.  The majority of the campaigning spending has be here, and Santorum is not eligible for 18 of the delegates due to paperwork errors.  Romney will capitalize on this and solidify his frontrunner status.  If Santorum can tie/beat him, chaos will ensue for months in this race.  Most of Ohio is proportional by the districts and proportional state-wide if over 20%.  Due to Santorum’s ineligibility for some district delegates, it will go to Romney.  Romney 40, Santorum 26.

***Idaho*** Mitt Romney/Ron Paul tie

I originally said Idaho would go to Romney 22, Paul 7, but I’ve seen that the state GOP party is considering a winner-take-all system.  In this voting, there are multiple rounds of voting in each district, and I would expect Paul to do well in this format.  Revised Idaho prediction: Romney 16, Paul 16.

Final Delegate Count without state official delegates, so these should be slightly lower overall than what you’d see on CNN or other sites.

Mitt Romney- 385

Rick Santorum- 198

Newt Gingrich- 101

Ron Paul- 90

As Obama Pledges To Have Israel's Back, Netanyahu Says It Will Be 'master Of Its Fate' | Fox News

Interesting two perspectives on the Israel/Iran security dilemma.  Netanyahu emphasizes Israeli political sovereignty and right to make its own decisions.

Super Tuesday Breakdown (Part 1)

419 delegates are up for grabs on “Super Tuesday” (March 6, 2012) where multiple states will hold their primaries or caucuses at the same time.  This day usually is the “nail in the coffin” or just for show as the candidate is normally already chosen.  But this year, four candidates are still in the race, and most importantly, all four of them think that they can win.  This leads to a lot of negative campaigning early on to wear one’s competitors down to emerge from the fray intact.  Tens of millions of dollars have already been spent in 2011-12 tearing down other Republican candidates in negative advertising, all just to get a magic number of 1,144 (half plus 1) delegates for the Grand Old Party.

The “delegate estimates” are as follows going into Tuesday:

According to CNN after the Washington Caucuses:

Mitt Romney     207

Rick Santorum  86

Ron Paul          46

Newt Gingrich  39

Other news agencies have many different numbers, but throughout the process, I have found CNN to have the most consistent.

I am going to attempt to break down Super Tuesday state by state and only include the “pledged” delegates.

Alaska: Ron Paul

Alaska has two weeks to vote in their local conventions, so I would expect a high turnout for loyal candidate supporters, and a high turnout for Ron Paul supporters (democrats included).  This state carries 24 delegates proportionally and I would expect Ron Paul to have a majority.  In 2008, only 1,400 votes were cast, so expect low numbers again, but a win is a win as we saw in Maine.  Second place will be tight with Gingrich/Romney because of Palin’s endorsement of Gingrich.  Paul 11, Gingrich 6, Romney 6 and Santorum 1.

Idaho: Mitt Romney

Idaho has a 25% Mormon population and I expect them to support Romney just as in Arizona earlier.  The Caucus awards proportionally as well, and I would expect Paul’s strong Western support to materialize here too, so a strong second for Paul.  There’s 13 bonus delegates so if Paul were to pull in at first, that would give him more momentum going forward at least to the unaware average voter.            Romney 22(9), Paul 7.

North Dakota: Ron Paul

North Dakota is great territory for the Paul Campaign and he pulled 21% there in 2008.  I see him capitalizing on this and eeking out a win here but not by much.   Paul 11, Romney 10, Santorum 5, Gingrich 2.

Oklahoma: Rick Santorum

Santorum is polling way ahead in Oklahoma, and his deep social conservatism echoes here.  Following a poll this decisive, I expect him to win big.  The delegate allocation is really convoluted here, but basically its this:  25 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving  15%+ of the statewide vote, unless 1 candidate has more than 50%, in which case he wins all 25. In each of the state’s 5 congressional districts, 3 delegates will be awarded proportionally to candidates with 15%+ of the vote, unless 1 had more than 50% of the vote in that district. The other 3 delegates are the elected state party leaders. So I am expecting this to reward Santorum and Romney the most.            Santorum 20, Romney 11, Gingrich 7, Paul 2.

Georgia: Newt Gingrich

Gingrich needs to win this state to stay relevant.  Since his SC win, he has plunged in all categories across the board.  31 delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote. The winner in each of the state’s 14 congressional districts will earn another 2 delegates, and the second-place finisher will win 1, unless one candidate wins more than 50 percent in a district. The other 3 delegates are the elected state party leaders.  This is shot in the dark but, Gingrich takes 10/14 districts and Santorum pulls in 2nd in 7 of them and wins 4.  Then Gingrich gets the majority of delegates in the overall poll.  The allotment of the delegates would be:              Gingrich 48, Santorum 22, Romney 3.

These are the first five states of the ten total, and the delegate count would be as follows:

Romney-    259

Santorum- 134

Gingrich-   102

Paul-         77

Note that the 13 bonus delegates in Idaho could go to Paul which would tighten the race with Gingrich and put Paul at 90.  However, so far “Super Tuesday” doesn’t seem to be helping anyone figure out the GOP nomination.  A Georgia victory for Gingrich will just prolong his existence in the race, and continue to divide voters.  I would think that unless Gingrich gets some 2nd place finishes, that even with Georgia, he should drop out.  I have paid so much attention to Paul in this part because the caucuses are his strong suit, and I think that we will see the first "real" Paul win out of these.  The remainder of the states are not his territory, and will further the disparity between him and Romney/Santorum.

Jon Stewart: Why Is the Media Ignoring Ron Paul?

Jon Stewart hit the nail on the head with this one.  I watched FOX News today just to see if they continued and once again, they did.

Pakistan: Friend or Foe?

New details of the Abbottabad raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound have come to light today confirming previous rumors of Chinese government involvement in the aftermath.  The downed stealth helicopter (an upgraded UH-60) was partially destroyed by US Seals to conceal the classified technology from foreign recovery; however, the Pakistani Military did not cooperate with the United States as they had hoped, and instead used the raid’s sovereignty issues as an excuse to be liberal in their application of securing the crash site.

The Chinese have been a staunch and close ally with the Pakistani government since they recognized the PRC in 1950.  Since then, the two governments have worked together in both military and transportation deals to strengthen their national interests.  The cooperation is not normally an issue of concern to the United States, but in this instance, the Pakistani military allowed the Chinese government access to the crash site. 

This is an event that set a precedent, equaling that set by the United States.  Pakistan blatantly defied the United States’ request to secure the crash site, and did not allow recovery of material in a proper manner to protect the US technology. The United States set a precedent by usurping the sovereignty of Pakistan.  The raid was conducted without Pakistan’s permission, in its own territory and has greatly upset the partnership that has developed since the Clinton Era.  Bush worked with Pervez Musharraf extensively to secure the Southern Border of Afghanistan throughout the early ’00s, but Musharraf maintains that the US forced his compliance throughout.  The raid on bin Laden’s compound in 2011 would reinforce Musharraf’s claim of the US bullying the Pakistani government; however, it also raises other issues with Pakistan’s commitment to controlling its own country.

Musharraf maintained from 1999 until his ousting that he was doing his best to comply with US interests, security and rooting out terrorists, extremists and Taliban from Afghanistan.  This took the normal Pakistan focus on India to an interior battle in the Northern Provinces and helped the US in Afghanistan. 

The question begs if the Pakistani government really did try to get rid of the militants within its borders, or if they were allowed to exist in a subservient position to the Pakistani government, and in exchange Pakistan was able to extend the increased military aid from the United States. 

The bin Laden raid in 2011 was a capstone and defining point in the US/Pakistan relationship.  It was played out on an international stage, and done unilaterally by the United States.  It culminated in a non-cooperative Pakistani government and a suspension of US aid to Pakistan due to the belief that OBL was under protection by either the Pakistani government or the ISI.  Either way, the suspension is for the best, but it has better defined the stance of both countries. 

This new development in regards to the stealth helicopter with Chinese intelligence is just one more roadblock in the route to a progressive relationship between the US and Pakistan.  The interesting trends to watch as this develops is the Republican stances in Presidential Debates for 2012, and how the foreign aid package changes for FY 2013. The financial aid and the Executive position will both play pivotal roles in the upcoming relationship between the two countries.

DOW Jones loses…again

Well, the DOW Jones lost again and everybody sold…again. The DOW Jones lost 520 points, over 4% and dipped back below 11,000.  The market actually didn’t precipitously fall right off the bat in the morning, but instead fell after the rumors of France’s rating being lowered to “AA+” by the S & P as the United States’ was last week.

The European markets reacted similarly, and expect France’s to violently shift tomorrow and ripple throughout the rest.  The failure of Greece is already on people’s minds from the last year and another major EU country struggling isn’t helping anyone. 

The current youth riots in the UK are reminiscent of 1985, something rare in such societies.  The Birmingham area has seen religious and racist inspired violence since then and the recent law enforcement troubles have put the already red hot area over the edge.  The combination of social unrest and financial insecurity should be to disturb the markets for the near future.

DOW Jones posts highest gain in two years

A day after losing over 600 points due to the downgrading last Friday, the DOW posted its highest point gain in two years of 430 points.  Initially, the opening bell saw a sell off to continue the trend from the previous trading day; however, the announcement of the continuance of the Federal Reserve Board keeping the low interest rate near zero until the estimated time frame of early 2013.  This stock gain should die off soon, as the Fed Board has taken this action in preparation for a sluggish and lethargic economy until then, making any type of improvement of the economy before then unlikely.

The economy will continue to stagnate because this type of stock fluctuation will not encourage investment risk taking for private enterprise.  The Fed Board ruling helped the stock market today, but that will be short lived as the unemployment rate stays at 9.1% nationally.  The gain of 117,000 jobs this month is not at the rate in which the economy needs to get back to Clinton/Bush era unemployment rates and it will plague President Obama throughout the 2012 election cycle which we’ve been in since the beginning of the end. 

The emergence of the race should put reform on the fast track in terms of political posturing from both parties and result in a high amount of symbolic resolutions, especially from the Republican controlled House of Representatives. 

Most likely, the stock market will sell again tomorrow as the investors will digest the actions of Ben Bernanke and worry that recovery is far off.  The speculators will once again turn the market back under 11,000 and result in a trend of loss for the near future.

What I find interesting in all these events is that Ben Bernanke affects the markets in such a direct manner, and he is not even elected.  The Chairman of the Fed Board is the most powerful unelected official in the world and his decisions have massive and far-reaching ramifications, and he is arguably one of the most powerful governmental positions in the world, only behind the President of the United States.  This type of appointment should be better supervised so that in the future, a bullheaded President cannot attempt a recess appointment to get around political obstacles and problems.

Break out those Y2K survival kits, you might need them.

Stock Market Crash 2.0

The opening this morning saw a 3% fall in the DOW-J and similar reports in the NASDAQ and S&P.  This is the first day that the US stocks have had a chance to react to the recent downgrade of the “AAA” rating to “AA+” for the United States. 

The Asian and European markets set the tone earlier today, showing drops of 4% in France, 5% in Germany, and 2.2% in Nikkei (over 3% last Friday), on the heels of the downgrading.

Furthermore, the downgrading continued for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well, extending the financial blow for the markets.  However, the crude oil price also went down over 4% to $83/barrel, the lowest in quite some time, and closer to the 52-week low of $80.90/barrel.  On the opposite side, the price of gold has surged yet again to $1,718/oz due to less confidence in the US dollar. 

Hopefully, this will not have such an adverse effect on day-to-day activities for middle class citizens, but less confidence in stock markets around the world discourages risk-taking and businesses will hold onto their investments, stagnating the economy once again.  The United States needs to do its best to encourage business movement and hiring to counterbalance the failing confidence in the markets; though its not like the current big investors have that much confidence in the governments anyway.

(Source: CNN)

Singularity: Kurzweil on 2045, When Humans, Machines Merge - TIME

The Turling Test is a good example of this.

1st Tumblr post.

1st Tumblr post.

People I Follow

  • poorrichardsnews
  • textsfrombennett
  • shagur
  • hijackpussy
  • zachdex
  • theathenalardisproject
  • thesuaveeconomist